The future is coming fast -- are you ready for it? Technology is advancing so rapidly in every direction that the possibilities seem limited only by our imaginations -- in fact it's getting harder and harder for our imaginations to keep up with all the changes! But the authors of the texts in this unit encourage us to give it a try. After Text A takes us on a light-hearted trip to the year 2030, the same author compares past predictions with the reality we live in today in Text B; finally, Text C speculates about whether advances in science and technology are really all it takes to make a better future.

Text A

Edward Cornish

    In less than three years the world will reach the outstanding year 2000, and in less than four -- on January 1, 2001, to be precise -- a new millennium will begin. I am encouraged to offer my personal view of what is likely to happen in the next 30 years -- a view that is heavily influenced by years of reading articles and books about the future.

  To begin with, the next 30 years will almost certainly bring us incredible new achievements. The problems and dangers now facing the world are, in my judgement, far outweighed by solutions and opportunities. It is true enough that humans have an extraordinary genius for making mistakes, but it is balanced by our strong tendency to notice and correct them.

    Rising Living Standards      The trends indicate that humans will be better off economically 30 years from now than they are today. Hundreds of millions of people will live in homes that will seem like palaces to their parents and grandparents. At the same time, brought together by telecommunications, people around the world will work together more efficiently than ever before. Expertise will flow easily and cheaply to places where it is needed. Computers and cellular phones will become commonplaces.

   Thanks to genetic engineering, plants will grow bigger, mature faster, need less fertilizer, and resist insects and diseases. New materials will permit improvements in products ranging from refrigerators to automobiles; roofs may rarely need repairs; stockings and underwear may not wear out during the owner's lifetime.

   Living to Be 200 Years Old   Life expectancy will rise around the world, creating a rapidly growing proportion of old people in the population, as well as the age of the oldest humans -- now above 120 years. Rapid progress in biotechnology suggests that breakthroughs may occur that will enable medical science to slow or reverse the aging process. This could mean that many people born in the next 30 years may live to be 200, 300, or more years old.

   Increased life expectancy has some serious drawbacks, however. As people get older, more will find themselves disabled. Happily, increasingly sophisticated medicines and devices to assist the ill and disabled will become available in the coming decades. Researchers are finding ways to prevent and even partially cure blindness, deafness, muscular deterioration, and other problems connected with aging. This means that increasing numbers of people will be able to work and support themselves for years beyond the typical retirement age of 65.

   The Global Village   The nations of the world will become more tightly integrated because of rapidly improving telecommunications and transportation. A global culture will develop rapidly and take its pick of clothing styles, foods, drinks, games, sports and customs from countries everywhere.

    A network of superhighways will link up the nations of Asia, Europe, and Africa. Engineers are already talking enthusiastically about a tunnel under the Mediterranean at Gibraltar to link Europe with Africa. And superhighways across the Eurasian land mass will allow residents of Shanghai and Hong Kong to drive comfortably and rapidly to destinations like Paris, Rome, and Stockholm. Travelers in a hurry will, of course, still prefer to fly, especially over long distances. Space-planes should be in service within the next 20 years, making flights from Tokyo to New York in only a couple of hours.

Humans Colonize Space    We will push the frontiers of human settlement in all directions. The Moon will acquire its first permanent base, and the human population living in space will rise steadily, as manufacturing develops aboard spacecraft and the resources of other planets are explored. Meanwhile, advancing technology will also solve many of the problems of living and working in unfriendly environments on Earth, so the population of Antarctica and the Polar Regions will climb steadily. The forbidding Himalayas may experience a development boom, including, perhaps, luxury hotels for tourists.

   The pace of ocean development will speed up as seaside nations increasingly assert their ownership of the resources off their shores. Ocean farming will become increasingly attractive as food prices rise. Studies have shown that the biological productivity of the ocean can be greatly increased by adding certain chemicals.

   Future Dangers and Problems    The 21st century will be a century of fantastic achievement, but it may be accompanied by horrors on an unheard-of scale, as was the 20th century with its world wars and atomic bombs. The biggest single cloud hanging over the next 30 years is violence -- crime, terrorism, and war. The Cold War is over, but hot wars on a smaller scale must be expected. In addition, nuclear weapons may be used by terrorists.

    The world's growing population and intensifying economic activity are increasingly destroying forests and polluting land, water, and air. Successful programs for reducing air pollution in many cities and restoring forests in many areas have demonstrated that environmental destruction is not irreversible, but the job will take great effort on a global scale.

    Unfortunately, the steady rise in world population makes it likely that, for the world as a whole, environmental conditions will continue to worsen for some years to come. Though a number of precious animal species such as pandas may be preserved, thousands upon thousands of others will almost certainly perish during the next 50 years as their habitats shrink.

    If we cannot look forward to a peaceful, problem-free future, we can at least comfort ourselves with the realization that it will probably be the best period of history we humans have ever experienced.

爱德华·科尼什

   再过不到三年世界就将进入令人瞩目的2000年，而再过不到四年----确切地说，到2001年1月1日----新千年就将开始。对于今后30年中可能发生些什么情况，我有心谈谈我个人的看法----这一看法受到多年来阅读有关未来的文章和著作的很大影响。

   首先，未来的30年几乎肯定会为我们带来难以置信的新成就。在我看来，解决问题的办法和机会远远超过了世界目前所面临的问题和危机。确实，人类天生就特别容易犯错误，不过，由于人类又往往特别会认识错误、改正错误，从而弥补了这一不足。

   不断提高的生活水平    种种趋势表明，30年后人们的经济状况将比今天更好。数亿人将会住在其父辈和祖父辈看来像是宫殿一样的家中。同时，世界各地的人们通过电信联结起来，将比以往更加有效地一起工作。专业技能知识将方便廉价地被传送到需要的地方。电脑和移动电话将成为常见的东西。

   由于遗传工程，植物会长得更大，成熟得更快，需要的肥料更少而且能抗病虫害。新的材料将使从冰箱到汽车等各种产品可以得到改进；屋顶几乎不需要维修；袜子和内衣也许一辈子也不会穿坏。

   活到两百岁  全世界的预期寿命将会延长，从而造成老年人在人口中比例的迅速增长，同时百岁人瑞最高的年龄也将会上升----现在已超过了120岁。生物工艺学的迅速发展表明，可能发生的重大突破将使医学科学得以延缓或扭转衰老过程。这可能意味着今后30年中出生的许多人会活到200岁、300岁或者更久。

   然而，预期寿命的延长也有其严重的不利之处。随着年龄的增长，越来越多的人将发现自己丧失自理能力。幸运的是，在未来几十年中，将会有日益先进的药物和医疗设备来帮助病残者。研究人员正在寻找预防甚至部分治愈失明、失聪、肌肉萎缩和其他老年疾病的方法。这意味着越来越多的人在过了65岁这个通常的退休年龄之后将能继续工作多年并养活自己。

   地球村    由于电信和运输的迅速改善，世界各国将更为紧密地结合成为一个整体。一种全球文化将会迅速发展，从世界各国选取服装款式、饮食、游戏、体育运动和风俗习惯。

   一个超级公路网将把亚洲、欧洲和非洲各国连接起来。工程师们已在热情洋溢地谈论在直布罗陀海峡附近的地中海下面建筑一条隧道把欧洲与非洲连接起来。穿越欧亚大陆的超级高速公路将使上海和香港的居民能够舒适快捷地驾车开往巴黎、罗马和斯德哥尔摩等地。当然，行色匆匆的人们，特别是在长途旅行时，仍将喜欢乘飞机，特别是长途旅行时。不出20年，航天飞机就会投入营运，这样从东京到纽约只需几个小时就够了。

   人类移居太空    我们将全方位拓展人类居住的疆域。在月球上将建立第一个永久性基地，而且随着在宇宙飞船上产品制造工作的发展和其他行星上资源勘探工作的进行，生活在太空中的人口将会稳步增长。 与此同时，不断进步的技术也将解决在地球上种种不良环境中生活和工作所面临的许多问题，因此南极洲和极地的人口也将稳步增加。令人生畏的喜玛拉雅山脉也许会经历一个迅速发展期，或许还会出现为观光客服务的豪华旅馆。

   由于沿海国家越来越强调对近海资源的所有权，海洋开发的速度也会加快。随着食品价格的上涨，海洋养殖业会变得越来越有吸引力。研究表明，通过添加某些化学品，海洋的生物生产能力可以大大提高。

   未来的危险和问题    21世纪将是一个业绩非凡的世纪，但也可能会伴随着规模空前的种种恐怖事件，就像发生过两次世界大战和原子弹爆炸的20世纪一样。笼罩着未来30年的最大的一片乌云便是暴力----犯罪、恐怖主义和战争。尽管冷战已经结束，但必须预计可能会出现一些较小规模的热战。另外，核武器也有可能被恐怖主义者所利用。

     世界不断增长的人口和不断加强的经济活动正在越来越严重地毁坏森林、污染土地、水源和空气。在许多城市减少空气污染和在许多地区重建森林的成功计划表明，对环境的破坏并不是不可逆转的，但是这项工作需要全世界为之付出巨大的努力。

   遗憾的是，世界人口的不断增长使得整个世界的环境状况在未来若干年中很可能仍将继续恶化。尽管像熊猫这样的一些珍贵动物物种可能会保存下来，但由于栖息地的缩小，在未来50年中将有成千上万的其它物种几乎肯定会灭绝。

      如果我们不能期望有一个太太平平、没有问题的未来，我们至少可以聊以自慰的是，我们已经意识到这可能是有史以来我们人类经历过的最佳时期。