The future is coming fast -- are you ready for it? Technology is advancing so rapidly in every direction that the possibilities seem limited only by our imaginations -- in fact it'ssubmarine.jpg (8121 bytes) getting harder and spacecraft.gif (27247 bytes)harder for our imaginations to keep up with all the changes! But the authors of the texts in this unit encourage us to give it a try. After Text A takes us on a light-hearted trip to the year 2030, the same author compares past predictions with the reality we live in today in Text B; finally, Text C speculates about whether advances in science and technology are really all it takes to make a better future.

  Text C

u10.jpg (12918 bytes)

 Michael Ventura

     "2000", "The year 2000...." That date has been hanging over us all our lives. The phrase itself has become a staple (基本内容) of our language, representing the moment when the real future begins.

    In less than six years that date will be a commonplace: we'll be writing it on our letters; we'll see it on our newspapers and on our license plates (汽车牌照). And after all this anticipation, we will wake to the year 2000 surprised, perhaps even amazed, to find that the citizens of the 21st century are not a marvelous generation of some brave new world (美好的新世界); no, they are only you and I. Just us folks.

    I suspect that the first morning of the year 2000 will be very much like one of those mornings we've always had. On such a morning you don't feel very different from how you felt the day before. You look the same. Your dilemmas (困境) haven't changed. Your political and religious views are the same and so are your feelings for your family. You are hours older and not very much wiser, and you still go to work in the same car, or on the same bus, to pay the same rent or the same mortgage (抵押借款), if not more. It takes more than the dawn of the new millennium to change that.

   Lonely No More

    Many technologists, scientists, writers and even politicians assure us that the dilemmas of our new millennium will be addressed by what they call "the information superhighway." By this they mean the extension of a worldwide computer network already in the making -- a network which many are looking to with profound hope.

   Right now, any individual with a basic computer and modem can tap into this new world network, calling up information about almost anything from almost anywhere and communicating with people all over the world. With new electronic advances linking up telephones, televisions, faxes and computers, a worldwide electronic nervous system will connect any place that can generate electricity.

    Cities can be rearranged. Many businesses are run and managed by individuals working in their homes connected by computer to "virtual offices", though the workers are miles and even whole states apart. "Virtual communities" link individuals with mutual interests who communicate solely by computer, whether their focus is chess or the stock market, and any individual with a computer can belong to many virtual communities simultaneously. There is no need for loneliness in the virtual global village.

   Where Do We Turn?

    We look to the information superhighway to solve our economic problems. But we forget that while information aids in the making of things, it doesn't, in and of itself, do the making. People working in factories do most of the making. Information doesn't construct houses, harvest vegetables, herd cattle or build furniture. Even in the 21st century work will remain manual. And countries where such jobs abound may have a better chance than those countries where they don't -- especially when many millions of new workers join the worldwide work force every year.

    We look to the information superhighway to answer questions that occupy the edges of our daily lives, with facts and forecasts, speculation and statistics. But the questions we wake up with are concerned with more immediate things. Basic issues like the meaning of marriage, what it means to be a man or a woman, and how we should behave toward our children are like potholes (路面凹坑) in the sidewalk that we trip over every day. In these matters, so crucial to our daily happiness, we have no one to turn to but ourselves and each other in the 21st, as in any century.

                 (608 words)

21世纪:信息与人类

迈克尔·文图拉       

     “2000”,“2000年……”这是个我们在生活中一贯悬望的年份。这个词语本身已经成为我们语言的基本内容,代表着真正的未来开始的一刻。

     再过不到六年,这个年份就会到处可见:我们会在信上写上它;我们将在报纸和汽车牌照上看到它。经过如此这般的企望之后,我们在2000年一觉醒来时,惊奇地,或许甚至惊讶地发现,21世纪的公民并非是某个奇妙的新世界非凡的一代;不,他们不过是你和我。不过是我们这些普普通通的人。

     我猜想,2000年的第一个早晨就像我们已经经历过的每一个早晨一样。在这天早晨你不会觉得和前一天有什么大的不同。你还是老样子。你的困境没有改变。你的政治观和宗教观没有改变,你对家庭的感情也同样没有改变。你只是年龄上大了几个小时,但并没有变得更聪明些,你仍然开着原来的汽车或搭乘原来的公共汽车去上班,你还要支付同样的租金或同样的抵押贷款,要是它们没涨过的话。新千年的黎明还不足以改变这一切。

   不再孤独

   许多技术专家、科学家、作家乃至政治家都向我们保证,我们新千年的种种难题将通过他们所谓的“信息高速公路”来解决。他们指的是已在形成的全球性电脑网络的扩展--一个许多人正在深切企盼的网络。

   现在,任何人有一台基本配置的电脑和调制解调器,都能进入这个新的全球网络,从几乎任何地方获得有关几乎任何事物的信息,并与世界各地的人们进行通信联系。由于电子技术的新发展把电话、电视、传真机和电脑连接了起来,一个遍布全球的电子神经系统将连通任何一个有能力发电的地方。

   城市可以重新规划。许多工商企业由在家中工作的人们经营管理,通过电脑与“虚拟办公室”相连,尽管彼此相隔数英里甚至整整几个州。“虚拟社区”把具有相同兴趣的人们联系起来,他们完全通过电脑进行交流,无论他们关心的是国际象棋还是股票市场。而且,任何人有了一台电脑就能同时属于多个虚拟社区。在“虚拟世界村”中无须孤独。

   我们求助于谁

   我们指望信息高速公路能解决我们的经济问题。但我们忘记了,虽然信息可以在制造东西的过程中提供帮助,但信息本身并不制造东西。大部分的制造工作是工厂里工作的人完成的。信息不会建造房子,不会收获蔬菜,不会放牧牛群,也不会制作家具。就是到了21世纪,工作仍要靠手工来完成。而且有大量这类工作的国家可能比这类工作不多的国家有更好的发展机遇--特别是在每年都有数百万新工人加入全球劳动大军的时候。

   我们指望信息高速公路用事实和预测,用估算和统计来解答在我们日常生活中的重大问题。 但是,我们每天醒来后面对的问题却与更直接的事情有关。婚姻的意义、作为一个男人或女人意味着什么、应当如何对待我们的孩子这类基本问题,就像人行道上的路面凹坑一样,我们每天都会在上面绊倒。在这些和我们日常的幸福如此息息相关的事情上,我们在21世纪也只能依靠我们自己并互相依靠,同在任何一个世纪一样。

  


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